Golden Era of Turkish Lira is now getting on toward
After the June 24th elections, the Turkish lira began to regain its losses. With the increase in confidence in TL, the dollar's depreciation in international stock markets has a significant share. First, let me explain the developments abroad. International monetary fund The IMF said that the share of dollars in global reserves fell from 62.7% to 62.5% in the first quarter of the year. The dollar has been overtaking since 5 quarters. The countries of the world are gradually leaving US dollar. On the other hand, avron's share in reserves in the first quarter increased from 20.2 to 20.7. The second development is that the US will be separated from the World Trade Organization (WTO). US Treasury Secretary Munchin denied this development, but the market has known for a long time that President Trump was not warm to the World Trade Organization. Trump, who previously shared on Twitter, accused the organization of being unfair to the US, saying, "WTO is a disaster, we are making it impossible for us to be good in trade, we are defeating, we have no judges." .
In Europe, the annual CPI rose to 2%, while in the US the confidence index and personal spending fell behind forecasts.
This week will be very important as the data to affect the parity will be determined. Manufacturing indices will be monitored. In the US, private sector and non-agricultural employment will be decisive. On Friday the queue of the council is breaking. America and China will begin to apply additional customs duties to each other totaling $ 34 billion. The beginning of trade wars is depreciating the dollar. Why did Trump start this war? Is it not to reduce the $ 375 billion foreign trade gap between China and the US? Not often things go as planned. When China responded, nothing changed. The public will pay the bill. The cost of life will increase, the sales of companies will decrease. The system established after the Second World War does not carry the new economic order. Trade wars that will lead to a deeper crucible today than in 2008 indicate that the old system is still inoperable. Trump's belligerent, vicious, uncompromising presidency requires the new system.
The international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's which holds Turkey's credit rating, three levels below the investment grade, has recently raised Turkey's "National Measurement Notes" of 2A to 3A. The National Measurement Note is an opinion on an entity's overall creditworthiness or the capacity to meet certain financial obligations. To sum up, S & P tells international banks: Turkey's ability to pay has recently increased, you can easily give credits. The Turkish lira has positively seperated from developing country currencies and gained 2 percent against the dollar in just 1 week … The fact that the new execution cabinet will be announced on July 8, the international funds recommending position in TL, the removal of the State of Emergency in Turkey, foreign investors to move to buyer's position in the bond market and the arrival of a record visitor during the tourism season makes the Turkish lira stronger. TL is now carry trade (ie safe currency). The dollar may fall to 4.50 TL by 15 days. The direction is down. In August we can gradually see between 4.25 – 4.30 TL.
Necmettin Batırel
Turkiye Gazetesi ( tg.com.tr )
